AGAINST ALL ODDS… an exercise in GRATITUDE

Take a coin from your pocket and toss it– heads or tails?

Of course, if it is a “fair coin” (not some weighted carnival trick) – the coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up and a 50% chance of landing tails up.

Now flip that coin seven more times… what is the probability that all eight times it lands on the SAME SIDE?

First let’s focus on the math beginning with an example where you flip the coin three times and want to know the probability of the coin landing heads up (H) exactly twice?

There are eight possible outcomes (2x2x2), as shown below (I’ve put outcomes where you get TWO HEADS in red):

(H, H, H) (H,H,T), (H,T,H) (T,H,H) (H,T,T) (T,H,T) (T,T,H) (T,T,T)

The following subset reveals the probability that of getting exactly two heads:

S= (T,H,H), (H,T,H), (H,H,T)

In this case, there are eight outcomes (each equally likely) and three that produce two heads.  Thus, the probability is 3/8 (or 37.5%).

That’s not too crazy… a little over 1/3 chance that you will get TWO out of THREE heads when flipping a “fair coin.”

Let’s take it to an extreme… what is the probability of flipping a “fair coin” EIGHT TIMES IN A ROW and GETTING HEADS ALL EIGHT TIMES?

Without a lot of diagrams or hoopla… the quick math is as follows:

(1/2⁸ * 8/8) = 1/256 = .0039

That’s less than one-third of 1 percent, a pretty LOW PROBABILITY, wouldn’t you say?

Put another way – that’s less than ONE IN ONE HUNDRED CHANCE of flipping a coin eight times and getting heads all eight times.

What does this probability lesson have to do with GRATITUDE?

According to the American Psychological Association, 50% of marriages end in divorce.  Yup.  Heads or tails – marriage is a coin toss.

Using example one (getting heads two of three flips):  for THREE couples, the probability of TWO them staying married is 37.5%.

Imagine the math for EIGHT couples:  the chances of all eight couples staying married (eight heads out of eight consecutive flips) is 00.39%!

Against all odds (namely less than one half of one percent), marriages in my family (four siblings) and my wife’s family (four siblings) have been resilient.

All EIGHT of these couples have stayed married.

WOW.  What are the odds?  Glad you asked – about 00.39%.  No bookie in Vegas would ever take these odds!  Nice to prove the pundits wrong for a change!

That’s one way to count your blessings!

Special kudos to:

• Todd and Lisa (34 years)
• Tom and Tamara (32 years)
• Peter and Lisa (28 years)
• Drew and Jen (26 years)
• Jim and Mary (20 years)
• Mark and Nina (19 years)
• Harry and Julianne (18 years)

Of course, keeping a marriage together isn’t just pure luck.  It takes commitment, devotion, selflessness and a sense of humor!

This essay originally published on August 17, 2018.